Corn Prices Hit a 3-Year High: I Called It in March (Cornfolio Update)
3-YEAR HIGH Corn JustHit $5.30 Cornfolio Update 1 Watch on YouTube, 7:04
The full breakdown runs 7:04. The written version below covers the numbers.
December corn traded $5.30 a bushel overnight and settled at $5.36 1/2 on August 26, the highest since July 2023, after breaking $5 on August 20 for the first time in 18 months. This channel called it on TikTok in March 2026 when corn was $4.50. The question now is whether to buy corn at a 3-year high.
December corn settle, Aug 26, 2026
Managed money net long, CFTC Aug 18
Of US corn use going to ethanol
The three reasons from March
First, the oil shock. WTI went from $71 on March 2 to $103 on March 30 and $113 on April 7, and sits at $81 today. Second, ethanol, which takes nearly 45% of US corn use according to USDA ERS. Year-round E15 passed the House 218 to 203 on May 13 and now sits in the Senate farm bill, with an industry estimate of 2.4 billion bushels of new demand a year. Third, the hedge funds showed up: CFTC data for August 18 puts managed money net long 181,692 corn contracts, up 55,817 in a single week from 125,875.
Then the crop broke
The August 12 WASDE cut yield to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183 and cut ending stocks to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.79 billion, while raising exports. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour came in at 173.2 bushels per acre on 88.6 million harvested acres, which is 669 million bushels below USDA. Crop condition is 57% good-to-excellent, down three points in a week.
The demand side is not just American
Brazil has 31 corn ethanol plants running and 20 under construction, with corn ethanol heading toward 30% of the country's fuel mix. China has committed to $17 billion a year of US farm goods through 2028 with corn on the list. France just had its smallest corn harvest since 1980.
The answer
The people who bought corn in March own the trade, and the people buying at $5.30 are buying from them. The next real test is September 11 at noon Eastern, when the WASDE lands. If USDA cuts yield toward 173 the move extends. If they hold 180 the funds get squeezed. Corn moves food inflation with an 18-month lag: corn bottomed in 2020 and the Fed hiked in 2022, corn topped in 2022 and the Fed cut in 2024. That clock is running.
The wider food-inflation thesis runs through Corn ETF, $COW and $HSY: My Entire 401k Is Food.
Sources: CBOT December corn settlements (Aug 26, 2026); USDA WASDE (Aug 12, 2026); USDA ERS corn use; USDA Crop Progress; CFTC Commitments of Traders (Aug 18, 2026); Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2026; EIA crude prices. The author holds positions in the things discussed. Nothing here is investment advice.