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FNMA Stock Analysis: The Most Complete Fannie Mae Stock Breakdown

Sep 13, 2026 Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) 31:35 video

By a former derivatives trader with 10 years experience at three of the world's largest investment banks.

$5.74 FNMA
Stock What $5.74 is pricing Watch on YouTube, 31:35

The full breakdown runs 31:35. The written version below covers the numbers.

Fannie Mae earned $4.0 billion in Q2 2026, its 34th profitable quarter in a row, and FNMA closed at $5.74 on September 11, 2026, down 48% this year and 62% below its $15.31 high. This is what that price is actually pricing.

$234.2B
Treasury's senior preferred claim

79.9%
Of Fannie common Treasury's warrant can take

~34%
Implied odds at book value

Treasury's claim

Treasury's senior preferred liquidation preference is $234.2 billion and rises every time Fannie adds net worth. Fannie's entire net worth is $116.5 billion.

The capital hole

Fannie is $176 billion short of FHFA's common equity tier 1 requirement, about 11 years of retained earnings at its current pace.

The warrant and the date

Treasury's warrant turns about 4.7 billion shares into its hands for almost nothing, making today's holders 20.1% of the company. The warrant expires September 7, 2028, which forces a decision.

The odds

If the senior preferred is treated as repaid, book value is about $16.90 a share. $5.74 is about 34% of that. Freddie at $5.11 against $19.68 is about 26%.

How mortgage rates are set is in How Do Mortgage Rates Work?.

Sources: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Q2 2026 10-Qs; Treasury senior preferred stock purchase agreements; FHFA capital rule; court filings. Nothing here is investment advice.

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