TLT ETF Analysis: The Most Complete TLT Breakdown on YouTube
24-YEAR LOW TLTETF $77.78, the 10-year at 5.3% Watch on YouTube, 28:27
The full breakdown runs 28:27. The written version below covers the numbers.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF closed at $77.78 on September 30, 2026, the lowest close in the fund's 24-year history. The asset the world calls risk-free has lost about 55% of its price since 2020, and in the second half of September investors put another $5.3 billion into it.
Years of effective duration (iShares)
Average yield to maturity of its 47 bonds
Yield rise that erases a year of income
What you own
TLT holds 47 US Treasury bonds, every one with more than 20 years left, an average maturity of about 26 years and $46 billion of assets. There is no credit risk in the normal sense. The risk is duration: at 14.74 years, a one-point rise in long yields takes about 14.7% off the price.
Why it lost half
TLT closed at $171.57 on August 4, 2020, with the 30-year near 1.2%. From that peak the price is down 54.7%, and with every coupon reinvested the total return is still minus 44.8%. In 2020 the fund paid about 1.2%. Today its 30-day SEC yield is 5.49%.
Five forces behind 5.3%
The Fed is hiking, with a quarter-point raise on September 16. Supply: $39 trillion of debt, about $155 billion of borrowing a month, and $1.04 trillion of interest this year per the CBO. Buyers leaving: Japan's holdings fell $13 billion in July as Japanese 10-year yields hit 3%. A term premium: 10-year TIPS pay a 2.92% real yield. And the buybacks failed, twice.
November 4
The Treasury's quarterly refunding lands the morning after the midterms. In 2023 the November 1 refunding shifted borrowing to bills, the 10-year fell from 4.99% to 3.79% and TLT rallied 21% in about nine weeks. Whether the Treasury pulls that lever again is the whole trade.
The survival number
Divide the 5.65% yield by the 14.74 duration and you get 38 basis points: the rise in long yields that wipes out a year of income. In 2020 the same math gave 6 basis points. A 100bp fall is worth about +20%; a 100bp rise about -9%.
Who buys the bonds TLT owns is in Who Is Buying US Debt? Japan's Treasury Holdings.
Sources: iShares TLT fund page (as of Sept 30, 2026); US Treasury TIC data, auction, refunding and buyback announcements; Federal Reserve; CBO; Freddie Mac PMMS; FRED. Nothing here is investment advice.