MCD Stock Analysis: The Most Complete McDonald's Stock Breakdown on YouTube
4-YEAR LOW MCDSTOCK $341 to $231 as yields rose Watch on YouTube, 21:49
The full breakdown runs 21:49. The written version below covers the numbers.
On February 27, 2026 McDonald's closed at its high for the year, $341.06, the same day the 10-year Treasury closed at 3.96%. On September 30 it closed at $230.94, its lowest close in 4 years, the same day the 10-year closed at 5.29%, its highest close since 2002.
Restaurants on land McDonald's owns (10-K)
Annual dividend after the Sept 17 raise
Share of its $40B debt at fixed rates
The landlord business
McDonald's makes much of its money from franchisee rent. Per its 10-K it owns the land under 56% of its restaurants, which is why Wall Street values the stock partly like a bond.
How much is rates
With the 10-year at 5.28% and mortgage rates at 7.28%, the dividend yield competes with Treasuries. By the regression in the video, rates explain about a quarter of the drop.
The rest of the drop
US guest counts turned negative. At the September 23 investor day McDonald's laid out an $8.5 billion franchisee support plan running through 2036, and the stock fell 4.81% that day. The Media Network and AI menu pricing are the new profit ideas.
The dividend
The dividend went from $7.44 a year to $7.72 after the September 17 raise, $1.93 a quarter.
The same rates are hitting housing stocks: Zillow Stock Analysis.
Sources: McDonald's FY2025 Form 10-K, Q2 2026 results, Investor Day (Sep 23, 2026) and dividend declaration (Sep 17, 2026), SEC EDGAR; Freddie Mac PMMS; US Treasury; Federal Reserve; Reuters; Yahoo Finance analyst targets. Nothing here is investment advice.