SMH ETF Analysis: The Most Complete Semiconductor ETF Breakdown on YouTube
9 DAYS DOWN SMHETF Only once longer since 2000 Watch on YouTube, 29:06
The full breakdown runs 29:06. The written version below covers the numbers.
The semiconductor ETF just fell 9 days in a row, about 15% in two weeks. Only one streak since SMH launched in 2000 was longer, and that one ran through September 2001. Every time SMH closed 20% below its record high, it was higher a year later 4 out of 5 times.
SMH close, Oct 16, 2026
The July 29 low
Halfway back to the June 22 high
What you own in SMH
Nvidia is about a fifth of the fund. The rest runs through the whole chip supply chain: designers, TSMC, the machine makers and memory. SOXX holds the same industry with a different recipe, and the video covers which one to hold.
How Nvidia hid the damage
SMH topped on June 22. Nvidia went on to new highs while the chip ETF fell, and Intel, Micron, AMD and TSMC took the hardest hits underneath it.
Why chips are falling
Three reasons: interest rates, memory, and the question of how long the AI spending lasts. If you own an S&P 500 fund, a Nasdaq fund or a target-date fund, chips are already moving your money.
What history says a year later
Closes 20% below the record were followed by a higher price a year later 4 out of 5 times, by a median of about 32% with dividends. The two times it didn't work were 2001 and 2022, and the video covers what separates a fast bottom from a slow one.
The one price
The July 29 low ($504.22) has decided this question before. $587, halfway back to the June 22 high, is the level that would change the picture on the upside.
The one chart that tells a growth scare from something worse is in TLT ETF Analysis.
Sources: VanEck SMH and iShares SOXX fund pages; CME FedWatch; FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance price and total return data, my own calculations. Nothing here is investment advice.