SPY ETF Analysis The Most Complete S&P500 Breakdown on YouTube

Oct 15, 2026 · SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca: SPY) · 49:24 video

By a former derivatives trader with 10 years experience at three of the world's largest investment banks.

The full breakdown runs 49:24. The written version below covers the numbers.

The S&P 500 just came off a record high with the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level since 2002, the Fed hiking and inflation running hot. Every textbook says high rates kill stock prices. The market is ignoring the textbook.

3 cracks outside the stock market

Oil, which usually peaks after stocks do. The biggest IPO wave in history, with about $350 billion of SpaceX stock coming off lockup. And the calendar, since November to April is when this market has done most of its work.

What you own in SPY

SPY was the first US ETF and its trust ends in 2118. The top 10 stocks are about 39% of the fund. The video compares fees with VOO and IVV and covers the S&P profit rule that decides who gets in.

Why stocks rose with rates this high

Earnings and buybacks did the work, and the forward P/E came down even as prices rose. The bear case is 1987, when the 10-year went from about 7% to over 10% and stocks crashed in October. The video compares it with 1994, when the Fed doubled rates.

The midterm pattern

Every midterm election since 1946, 20 of them, the S&P 500 was higher a year later. The year that worries me most is 2018: the Fed hiking into the midterms, the 10-year at multi-year highs and a 15% drop into Christmas Eve.

What to track

The 10-year yield, equal-weight RSP, junk bond spreads and the MOVE index, plus the SPY levels in the video that would prove the call wrong.

The same 10-year yield decides where gold goes next: GLD ETF Analysis.

Sources: State Street SPY prospectus and fund data; FactSet Earnings Insight (Oct 2026); S&P Dow Jones Indices eligibility rules; SpaceX final prospectus (SEC 424B4); Jay R. Ritter IPO statistics; BLS CPI and PPI; CME FedWatch; FRED DGS10 and BAMLH0A0HYM2. Nothing here is investment advice.