GLD ETF Analysis: The Most Complete Gold Breakdown on YouTube

Oct 11, 2026 · SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD) · 30:09 video

By a former derivatives trader with 10 years experience at three of the world's largest investment banks.

The full breakdown runs 30:09. The written version below covers the numbers.

Gold hit a record $5,595 on January 29, 2026 and fell almost 30% to $3,955 by June 30, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.67%, its highest since 2002. Since August, yields kept making new highs and gold stopped making new lows.

Why it ran

Gold went from $2,641 to $5,595 in 13 months, led by central bank buying, which hit a record 289 tonnes per the World Gold Council.

Why it broke

A 2.87% 10-year real yield, the highest since 2008, plus a stronger dollar and a Fed still hiking. JPMorgan and Goldman cut their gold targets on the way down.

After every top in yields

Gold has rallied after every top in the 10-year yield since 2001. The 2 failures were 1981 and 2000. The video also covers the 2006 analog and how long gold usually takes to reclaim a top.

Debasement vs Sell America

The debasement trade says governments inflate the debt away and gold wins. Sell America is a different trade with different winners, and telling them apart is most of the call.

Owning it

GLD holds physical gold, and gains are taxed at the 28% collectibles rate. $3,955 is the line in the sand in the video.

The yield levels that confirm the top are in TLT ETF Analysis. Silver is in SLV ETF Prediction.

Sources: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026; FRED (DFII10, T10YIE); US Treasury refunding schedule; BLS; Federal Reserve FOMC statement and calendar; ECB. Nothing here is investment advice.